Conflict dynamics can be described as the resulting interaction between the conflict profile, the actors, and causes. Understanding conflict dynamics will help identify windows of opportunity, in particular through the use of scenario building, which aims to assess different possible developments and think through appropriate responses.

Scenarios basically provide an assessment of what may happen next in a given context according to a specific timeframe, building on the analysis of conflict profile, causes and actors. It is good practice to prepare three scenarios: (a) best case scenario (ie describing the optimal outcome of the current context; (b) middle case or status quo scenario (ie describing the continued evolution of current trends); and (c) worst case scenario (ie describing the worst possible outcome).

If history is the key to understanding conflict dynamics, it may be relevant to use the timeline to identify its main phases. Try to explain key events and assess their consequences. Temporal patterns (eg the four-year rotation of presidents or climatic changes) may be important in understanding the conflict dynamics. Undertaking this exercise with different actors and groups can bring out contrasting perspectives.