In the absence of careful contingency planning, proactive programme implementers may react with potentially ill-conceived responses when quickly changing contextual environments throw up difficult circumstances. For example, if conflict dynamics rapidly deteriorate, an organisation may make a snap decision to evacuate, possibly leaving national staff at risk and beneficiaries suddenly without support.

Contingency plans define predetermined strategies for reacting to specific changes in the operational context. Put another way, if conflict dynamics deteriorate to a particular point, what actions will be required (see “Event” and “Response” columns in Box 5 below)? How will they be carried out? Who will undertake them? Within what timeframes? Contingency plans are designed using scenarios (see Chapter 2 section 2.4) in conjunction with conflict-sensitive indicators that monitor the evolution of a given conflict dynamic (see above).

A natural reaction to increased insecurity and violence is for implementers to move the project to the national

capital or halt operations in the hope that things may soon improve. There is also an unfortunate tendency for contingency plans to focus on expatriate staff and neglect national staff and partners altogether. Conflict-sensitive contingency plans will need to include security for all situations and all people – staff, partners and beneficiaries. A well thought out conflict-sensitive contingency plan will allow for a continued level of engagement in a wide variety of difficult circumstances based on the organisation’s detailed knowledge of the various profiles, causes, actors and dynamics. Should evacuation be required, a conflict-sensitive contingency plan will ensure a level of continued support and safety for staff who are not able to leave the region or country.

Contingency plans will allow for a level of stability and measured responses to difficult circumstances. The plans should allow for a degree of flexibility so that implementers may respond appropriately to circumstances as they arise, based on the detailed knowledge they have gained through the conflict analysis and careful monitoring of conflict-sensitive indicators.

During the latter part of the armed conflict in Sri Lanka, CARE developed a Risk Management Matrix to foresee possible events and plan adjustments in the project to mitigate the impact of the conflict dynamics on the project. Table 1 gives an adapted example of the format and the analysis of an actual risk.