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Next: 3.4.2 Implementation stage

3.4.1 Assessment and planning stage

Key steps at this stage include:

Conflict-sensitive strategic assessments undertaken at the national level will have helped identify priority areas for addressing conflict issues within and across sectors, but in order to integrate conflict sensitivity into the assessment and planning of a sectoral approach it will be important to consider complementing the macro conflict analysis with a sector specific conflict analysis of the linkages between the specific sector (eg health, education, agriculture) and the context. In particular the sector specific analysis will address the different levels of conflict, particularly local level dynamics that will impact on sector activities, and the relationship between those various levels (local, sector, national). (See Box 5.)


Box 5: Examples of linkages between sectors and context

Health & education (service provision)

  • Inadequate educational and health provision for certain parts of the population lead to insecurity and reduced mobility (conflict profile).
  • Uneven distribution of health and education service provision and marginalisation of certain groups fuels grievances (conflict causes).
  • Inadequate health and educational provision increases conflict risk due to youth dissatisfaction with lack of opportunity (conflict dynamics).

Natural resource management (land, water, agriculture)

  • Environmental damage leading to natural resource management problems (conflict profile).
  • Unequal access to resources such as land/water fuelling grievances (conflict causes).
  • Environmental damage fuelling conflict due to competition over scarce resources (conflict dynamics)


Applying the sector specific conflict analysis to the development and appraisal of the sector strategy and budgetary allocation will revolve around two sets of key questions:

Relating the sector strategy to the conflict analysis can be done using the analysis framework provided by the conflict triangle outlined in Chapter 2. Table 3 provides examples of questions that need to be asked to determine how the sector strategy can address the issues raised in the analysis (the actual questions will differ according to the specific context).

Table 3: Examples of key questions to inform sector strategies
Key elements of conflict analysis
Questions
Profile
Does the strategy take into consideration specific conflict-prone / affected areas? Is it adapted to different geographical regions in the country? Does it consider the location of natural resources or important lines of communications?

How is the strategy informed by the history of conflict (eg previous experience of tensions escalating into violent conflict due to land policies or reform processes / policies linked to sector interventions)?
Context Do the strategy and budget address the long-term structural causes of violent conflict (eg marginalisation of certain groups from the political process and access to services; educational bias in terms of language / culture; corruption related to certain sectors which undermines confidence in the state; unequal access to resources; food insecurity; weak governance structures)?

Do they address the accelerating or prolonging factors aggravating conflict risks?

Do they seek to maximise factors contributing to peace? Eg do reform processes linked to sector strategies seek to address governance and representation issues? Does the strategy support the development of a nascent civil society? Does it seek to capitalise on regional integration opportunities on issues that address regional tensions (eg over resources)?
Actors How does the strategy relate to key actors and their goals, relationships, capacities? Does it empower those working towards peaceful solutions and local capacities for peace? Does it challenge vested interests (eg in government)? Does it increase or decrease opportunities for communication between different groups?
Dynamics Does the strategy take into consideration conflict dynamics? Can it adapt to different scenarios and conflict trends? For instance, does it take into consideration specific reconstruction activities which might be needed following a local peace agreement? Can it serve to promote positive trends (eg by providing quick peace-dividends / incentives in the event of positive developments)?
Note: see Chapter 2 section 2 for a detailed explanation of profile, causes, actors and dynamics.

Having ascertained the extent to which the strategy and budgetary allocation aim to target conflict issues, a number of actions / strategies can be developed to address outstanding issues. Examples will vary according to the context, but include:

The development of actions and strategies will involve considering the linkages between sectors, as actions will most likely be required in other sectors to ensure the conflict sensitivity of the strategy. For example, actions in the transport sector, such as the building of a new transport corridor, might increase opportunities for arms or drugs trafficking and would therefore need to be linked to actions within the security sector to enhance security for the region. Furthermore, making a difference in one sector, such as transport and housing, without improvements in the provision of other basic services, can fuel new grievances.

The process will also require consideration of strategies for addressing conflict issues in key crosscutting areas, such as governance. For example, governance problems may be at the root of tensions between groups over unequal access to resources; or corruption (eg in the police) may fuel a variety of grievances and undermine state credibility.

Indicators and benchmarks need to be developed alongside the sector strategy, to gauge the success or impact of the implementation of the strategy and the intervention, and to help determine what adjustments, if any, need to be made to secure the planned outputs. Conflict sensitivity requires indicators which gauge the interaction between the intervention and the context and vice versa (see Chapter 2 section 3 for more information).

Indicators will necessarily vary according to the intervention in question and the context. Box 6 provides some examples related to the education sector.

Box 6: Possible conflict analysis indicators for the education sector
Profile
Marginalisation of group x in region y from political process and access to basic services; lack of access to education, due to insecurity in region.
  • numbers of group x attending primary school
  • improvements in the quality of educational provision in region y.
  • numbers of group x involved in school users groups (eg PTAs)
  • safe access to education by group x in region y
Causes of conflict / actors
Educational bias in curriculum leading to perceived marginalisation of group x; opportunities for improved relations between groups x & z through peace education in curriculum.
  • increase / decrease in incidence of teaching of language x in schools
  • increased interaction between groups x and z
  • adjustment of educational bias in curriculum

Next: 3.4.2 Implementation stage

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