Version / Date of issue January 2003

Name of organisation World Vision

Authors

Stephen Jackson with Siobhan Calthrop

Primary purpose

Conflict analysis and planning

Intended users

Initially designed for emergency response staff of international NGOs. It is also useful for staff involved in planning and design of development or advocacy programmes in countries experiencing instability.

Levels of application

Country and regional levels.

Conceptual assumptions

1. ‘Turbulent Contexts’

Refers to what the humanitarian sector is calling Situations of Chronic Political Instability (SCPI).This term expands the notion of ‘complex humanitarian emergency’ to reflect the long-term, cyclical and political nature of many of these contexts. It covers phenomena such as cyclical conflict, violence against civilians, political unrest, extreme polarisation of wealth, natural disasters over a number of years, population displacement, and the need for humanitarian assistance. The emphasis is on the chronic and political nature of these contexts.

2. MSTC Tools

These tools are based on recent research on the economy of war, but do not oppose ‘greed’ and ‘grievance’. Rather, the methodology aims at capturing both the economic agendas in war and the social dynamics (eg around class, gender, identity, history, belief systems) leading to violence. The MSTC analysis uses specially designed, practical tools to peel away the political, economic and socio-historic layers of complex conflicts.

MSTC was designed to dovetail with the Do No Harm approach. It provides for detailed contextual information at the meso- and macro-level, on which Do No Harm can then build.

Main steps and suggested process

MSTC analysis provides five tools to answer the following key questions:

1. What phases has the context moved through? (Rapid Historical Phase Analysis)

2. What are the symptoms of instability? (Symptoms of Instability Analysis)

3. What kinds of actors are at play in the growing instability? (Actor Characteristics Analysis)

4. What struggles over resources and power have played a role in the growing instability? (Political Economy of Instability Analysis)

5. What resentment and stereotypes have played a role in the growing instability? (Inter-group Relationship Analysis)

There are two further tools, one to synthesise the analysis (SCPI Mapping) and the other to outline possible future scenarios (Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis).

Other tools are also available in the annex, including the iceberg method inspired by the UN Early Warning and Preventive Measures methodology (see Survey of conflict causes as explained in tool 10) that can be used to complement the ‘Symptoms of Instability Analysis’, in order to identify the structural causes that lie behind the immediate causes identified within the MSTC process.

Guiding questions / indicators

Refer to individual tools

Required resources

Variable, as modules can be combined in different ways.

Current applications

• It has recently been applied by World Vision Sudan and will be undertaken in Kosovo and Uganda (planned for July / August 2003). There are also plans to use these tools, combined with other tried and tested tools, for an inter-agency analysis of Iraq.
• Key World Vision humanitarian, policy and programme staff have been exposed to it.

Lessons learnt

Lessons learnt are yet to be gathered, as it is still early in the test stage. It is nonetheless planned that key practitioners involved in the test runs will be brought together by the end of 2004 for the review and revision of the tools.

However, key lessons learnt so far include:

• the need for flexibility in the choice of tools used
• the need for sensitivity and confidentiality in the dissemination of findings
• the usefulness of the tools for strategic planning in general
• the need to consider simplifying the tools.

Commentary on the tool

The tool is still in its infancy, and yet to be fully tested, but early indications are that it is very useful for conflict-sensitive programming (emergency or longer-term development) in areas where macro-level analysis has been neglected. It is also useful for the analysis of ‘clusters of countries’, i.e regions, where causal factors are cross-border.

Available reports

Reports of MSTC analysis findings for the above countries are not available owing to sensitivities.

Contact details

World Vision International

Siobhan Calthrop

Policy & Advocacy Capacity Building Co-ordinator

Email: siobhan_calthrop@wvi.org