Background

Kugan is a poor developing country. The national government is undertaking a road construction project through the northern region to create a trade link with the neighbouring country of Moyag. The road right-of-way has been cleared and levelled, but asphalting has not yet begun. Northern Kugan is a sparsely populated region dominated by pastoralists and cattle herders. There is violent conflict in the adjacent region of Moyag, and arms proliferation in Northern Kugan has become a problem. Another problem is the involvement of Kugan locals in rustling cattle for Moyag-based gangs.

Project’s impact on context – are changes in the context linked to the project?

Context’s impact on project – are changes in the project linked to the context?

Change in profile: Environmental degradation, and in particular, deforestation.

Project-related question or suspicion: Is road construction contributing to deforestation?

Indicators:

1: respondents who feel the natural habitat has improved/ deteriorated

2: changes in the price of cut wood

3: percentage of road through forested areas.

Change in project: The road is now being constructed in a straight line and thus at a lower cost.

Profile -related question or suspicion: Is there government pressure on pastoralists to surrender land so road can be constructed in a straight line?

Indicators:

1: pastoralists’ perception about the benefit of the road

2: changes in real construction expenditures compared to project budget

3: pastoralists’ feelings about the road being a government project compared to other respondents (eg cattle herders).

Change in causes: Increase in small arms proliferation.

Project-related question or suspicion: Is road construction facilitating the trafficking of small arms?

Indicators

1: number of respondents who feel there has been an increase in small arms proliferation (since road construction began)

2: change in incidences of gun related violence along road

3: number of respondents who feel it is easier/ harder to purchase a gun compared to off-road respondents.

Change in project: Payroll offices being robbed.

Causes -related question or suspicion: Are bandits using increasingly available small arms to rob construction payroll offices?

Indicators:

1: incidences of robberies and amount stolen

2: number of robberies that involve small arms

3: respondents who perceive the road building project is not a proper prioritisation of community needs.

Change in actors: Access to education for rural youth.

Project-related question or suspicion: Is road under construction already increasing transportation options for rural youth?

Indicators:

1: number of youth attending schools accessed by road

2: number of days average student attends one of these schools

3: number of respondents who feel the road has increased access to schooling.

Change in project: Fuel being stolen from construction vehicles.

Actors -related question or suspicion: Are poor cattle herders seeking to derive benefits from road project by stealing fuel from construction vehicles?

Indicators:

1: litres of fuel stolen

2: cattle herders’ feelings about expenditure on road

3: change in sales by cattle herders’ traditional fuel sources.

Change in dynamics: Decreased incidences of cattle rustling.

Project-related question or suspicion: Is increased access to employment and income undermining the need to rustle cattle?

Indicators:

1: change in level of household income on road compared to off road incomes

2: percentage change in households that feel they have better livelihood options

3: change in incidences and number of cattle stolen.

Change in project: Labour for project has become hard to find.

Dynamics -related question or suspicion: Are potential construction workers not seeking employment on the road project because of their concerns about increased insecurity?

Indicators:

1: number of vacancies unfilled in road construction jobs

2: percentage of construction workers who ‘feel safe’ working in the area

3: number of construction workers who leave the construction camps at night.